The White Tower Conflict

I have given a lot of thought to how the struggle for the White Tower will resolve itself and thought that other Wotmaniacs might be interested in what I think. In a nutshell I believe that it will be a relatively bloodless conflict with Egwene as the victor (like Rand’s conquest of Illian). The key to Egwene’s victory will be the purge of the Black Ajah from the Tower which will change the dynamics of internal Tower politics in her favor.

First consider how the purge will take place. I think that the most likely plan of action for the Sitters conducting the purge will look something like the following because it seems to make the most sense. First, the Sitters need people to help them hunt down the Black Ajah. The 10 Rebels in the Tower fit the bill, and the Sitters seem to have little remorse in using them for the task, so I think they will be the first ones tested and then they will start the hunt. Next the Sitters should start from the top down in the Tower because once they have control of the leadership the purge can be more easily managed and kept secret. However, Elaida and Alviarin will be left alone because as Amyrlin and Keeper the Sitters cannot simply make them disappear if they turn out to be Black Ajah. That would tip off the Black Ajah and, in addition, Elaida or Alviarin would take over the purge and the Sitters seem determined to do this on their own. All of the Sitters will be questioned, and probably the Ajah heads, after that it will turn into a routine process of cornering every Sister one by one and questioning her.

Once the leadership is established the purge will have to move quickly to avoid detection. This is because the Black Sisters that get captured will be out of circulation and sooner or later they will be missed. I think that the Sitters are also smart enough to know that detection would mean: (i) open warfare in the tower (where no one knows who is who); (ii) escape for a large part of the Black Ajah; (iii) or both. I would estimate that they have from 24 to 48 hours to finish the job once the leaders are purged. Since there are only 250-300 Sisters in the Tower that is not an impractical time frame, and once the process passes the halfway point it will take less and less time to complete because there will be more and more hunters.

The Sisters who are confirmed Black Ajah, or ones who will not reswear the first oath, will be segregated and guarded until the purge is over. While the purge is taking place some Sisters will have the job of putting the confirmed Darkfriends and suspects to the question. I believe that the focus of the questioning will be Black Ajah names and plots. In any event, I believe that the Sitters will learn the following things from the Black Ajah about Elaida: (i) she was raised to the Amyrlin Seat as part of a Black Ajah plot responsible for breaking the Tower; (ii) she kidnapped Rand, had him tortured, the whole mission was crushed by a few hundred Asha’man, thirty Sisters ended up prisoners, and Elaida covered it up; (iii) she sent 51 Sisters and 500 Tower Guards to their doom at the Black Tower because she underestimated the Asha’man, and covered that up too; (iv) she issued the decrees that turned the Tower into an "armed camp," and alienated the rulers who deal with Rand, all at the direction of the Black Ajah. Please note that Elaida believes that (iii) and (iv) are mistakes big enough for the Sitters to depose and still her and that is why she is letting Alviarin slap the snot out of her and tell her exactly what to do. If Elaida believes these mistakes will get her deposed I think we should also.

On a side note, I think that Mesaana will get snapped up somewhere in the process. She will swear the first oath, because she will be in a situation where she will have no choice, and be asked something like ‘are you of the Black Ajah,’ since she is not she will be able to truthfully answer no. She will then be released to help hunt, but instead she will sound the alarm for the Black Ajah and have Alviarin use her ability to travel to get the rest of the Black Ajah out of the Tower. It just stands to reason that the bad guys need their Dreadlords.

Once the Sitters get the information I mention above and realize how badly Elaida has bungled things I think they will be about half way through the purge. Egwene and the Rebels with their army will suddenly appear on the scene. At this point I believe that the Sitters and Ajah Heads (the 'Tower Leadership') will be completely in charge of the tower, and no one will be doing anything that Elaida or Alviarin say because they think the two may be Black Ajah. This is where we come to the real "CRUNCH TIME" for the Tower Leadership. Armed with what they will know about Elaida, and the fact that there is an army of 50,000+ troops led by Gareth Bryne and 300 + Sisters outside the walls, what will they decide to do? Let’s consider the options: (i) Fight; (ii) Surrender; or (iii) Negotiate.

I think that negotiation is the only real option and here’s why. If they decided to fight they would probably believe that it would be long and bloody (unless they realize that the Rebels can Travel). That will not be acceptable to them because they know the Tower needs to be whole to fight the Last Battle (which could be tomorrow), and deal with the Black Tower. Surrender is not an option because the Tower Leadership will know that the Black Ajah is alive and well among the Rebels. In addition, they will know there will be no way to purge the Black Sisters with the rebels if they give up because they will no longer be in power.

Assuming I am correct, when they do negotiate they really only have one option, depose Elaida and accept Egwene as Amyrlin Seat. That creates a Win-Win situation for both sides. The Tower Sisters get what they need and the Rebels get what they want. As additional support for this conclusion you should consider the Pros and Cons of keeping Elaida as Amyrlin Seat. I put together my own list that follows with an eye toward the major points. I am sure that I missed quite a few points and would appreciate comments here.

Pro: 1. The Tower may be able to say to the world it was never really broken;
2. Keeping Elaida will keep the current Tower Leadership in power;
3. Egwene could be worse than Elaida;
4. Egwene and/or her advisors could be Black Ajah;
5. ?

Con: 1. Elaida was a dupe of the Black Ajah and raised to the Amyrlin Seat as a part of a Black Ajah plot that broke the Tower;
2. Elaida is an ego maniac;
3. Elaida has made enemies of many of the Tower Leadership by being a dictator, giving out penances, and exiling Sitters to Ebou Dar;
4. Elaida kidnapped Rand . . . we all know how that ended . . . then covered it up;
5. Elaida got 51 Sisters and 500 Tower Guards crushed at the Black Tower . . . we all know how that ended too . . . covered it up, and failed to deal with the Black tower when she had the chance;
6. Elaida would be more firmly entrenched as Amyrlin Seat if they keep her, and therefore even harder to deal with, because keeping her would in effect be a ratification of her past actions;
7. Keeping Elaida will mean a bloody fight with the Rebels at a time when the Tower need to be whole more than anything, it would also mean the death of many Sisters/Warders/soldiers on both sides;
8. The relationship with Rand basically cannot be repaired if Elaida stays, and that also means
the nations that he rules;
9. Elaida’s past cover ups indicate that she will probably cover up future disasters and
therefore she cannot be trusted;
10. The damage done to the Tower by the Black Ajah inspired decrees that El signed will be very hard to undo with Elaida in place, including the ones driving the Ajahs apart and alienating all the rulers of the nations;
11. Elaida had the king of Illian (Mattin Stephanos) kidnapped (speculation but very probably true);
12. Elaida is Red and the Red may have been raising up False Dragons;
13. Elaida allowed Tar Valon to fall into disrepair (Leane saw this in TAR);
14. Victory over the Rebels would mean the stilling of many Sisters and trials for treason and it just is not practical on the scale that they would have to do it;
15. They would have to drive away most of the 100's of new novices that the Rebels have collected, at a time when the Tower needs new blood badly (this assumes that they know about the 450+ new novices the Rebels have);
16. If they fight and lose they will PAY BIGTIME;
17. The Tower Leadership will have to rely on High Captain Chubain (who is untested an maybe a Darkfriend) to win against Gareth Bryne (a Great Captain) and that is probably not a bet they will make;
18. If they fight they will have to do something VERY NASTY to Egwene for being a rebel Amrylin. They know that Egwene has a personal relationship with Rand and he will be really Hacked Off if anything bad happens to her, maybe even so mad as to send in the Aiel and Asha’man to get
some payback! Now that would be cool;
19. Finally think on this, with Egwene and the Rebels ready to kick in the front door, this whole scene looks like when the last Red Amyrlin Seat, Bonwhin, almost led the Tower to disaster against Hawkwing. That Amyrlin was deposed for less bungling than Elaida has caused and I am sure that the Tower Leadership is thinking on this, or will be. The Ajah Heads have been whispering in corners for a reason and I think it involves the end for Elaida. Also, I have never seen it mentioned before, but Elaida may actually be Bonwhin reborn;

Imagine the scene where the Tower Leadership marches into Elaida’s study and says "you're finished" and then drags her out of the Tower by the hair kicking and screaming... Too cool.

I would like to add three additional side notes here which are off shoots of this analysis. First, something that may help the Tower leadership make its decision to accept Egwene is military action by Gareth Bryne. I have been and Infantry Officer in the U.S. Army for 10+ years and tried to imagine how I would take the tower if I were in Bryne’s place. Simply put I would DIVIDE and CONQUER. First, I would split my forces to cover every bridge and the ports (if I could get the ships). Next, I would create teams of Aes Sedai and soldiers to capture strategic points in the city’s defenses using gateways. I would start with strategic points along the outer wall, like bridge defenses and strong points, and quickly take the entire wall one piece at a time hours max on this). In addition, I would target troop concentrations (like large barracks) when they are least prepared (3 or 4 AM), and armories because soldiers without weapons are obviously not very effective. With Sisters to give orders the Tower Guards would be totally confused and probably take orders from the Rebels. The Tower Guards could then be herded through gateways to camps set up for prisoners off of the island. Basically, with the Tower Guards surprised, outflanked, and confused there will be a minimum of bloodshed. Egwene is smart enough to realize that once the struggle for the tower is over she will need the Tower Guards to fight in the Last Battle, so minimizing the killing makes perfect sense and, in addition, this fight is really between the Sisters. Once the outer wall is secure Bryne can move his entire force into the city and take control of everything except the Tower and it’s outer wall. Then the Tower and its grounds becomes a prison for the Tower Aes Sedai. I think that the negotiating would take place in earnest at this point because it would basically be a Mexican Standoff. However, somewhere in here Elaida will spring a nasty surprise on Egwene that will put Egwene and Gawyn together and fulfill Egwene’s dream of Gawyn saving her or breaking her neck.

As for the captured Black Sisters, including the ones with the Rebels, I do not think that they will be stilled because they can still be useful as weapons in the last battle. I think that Egwene will make them swear about 100 new oaths and make them wear adam for the rest of their lives.

This last thought is way out there, but I think it is poetic justice. Now that Rand has cleansed the taint on Saidin there will eventually be an alliance between the Black Tower and the White. As a peace offering, and a way to keep an eye on the Asha’man, Egwene will give them Elaida’s "palace" as a new home. After the Black Tower is "rent in blood and fire" (probably fighting their own Darkfriends) they will be in the market for some new real estate anyway.

I hope that this will spark some debate and look forward to your comments.

wotmania says: This is an exceptionally long theory, and I'm exhausted just from formatting it to get it posted! Seriously, it's a good, in-depth analysis of the entire White Tower Conflict. Now I'll leave the comments and debate to the good people of wotmania...